Iran Update
What is happening in Iran?
Mario Loyola has some thoughts:
• French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle joins American battle-groups for exercises in the Arabian Sea.
• Ali Khamenei hints that Iran will abandon the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
• Iranian navy conducts live-fire exercises in close proximity to American naval forces patrolling the Gulf.
• Iranian Revolutionary Guards seize fifteen British sailors supposedly on patrol in Iraqi waters, but nearby British warship does not interdict the RG raid, suggesting strongly that the Brits were not in Iraqi waters.
And:
[T]he interesting question now in the Persian Gulf is the risk calculation of Iran vs. that of the United States. The Iranians are trying to give the impression that they’re happy to risk a firefight with the United States. But they are bluffing.
The problem is that, as North Korea proved in the 1990s, bluffing is very effective against the United States.
More news here.
UPDATE:
Ed Morrissey notes that Iran will violate the Geneva Convention if it tries British soldiers for espionage:
The Iranians cannot try the men for espionage if they captured the sailors in uniform. Article 46 of the Geneva Convention states this clearly:
2. A member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict who, on behalf of that Party and in territory controlled by an adverse Party, gathers or attempts to gather information shall not be considered as engaging in espionage if, while so acting, he is in the uniform of his armed forces.
The indictment of British sailors in uniform as spies will violate the GC. Can we expect the same level of outrage over this explicit violation as the supposed violations of the US government?
Uh, No.
UPDATE II: