Avian Flu Update IV
Flu hits Turkey and Romania and Tom Maguire notes the US Plan has been leaked (see also the Health and Human Services 2004 Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan).
Maguire says:
Be very afraid.
Why?
Well, I’m afraid for two reasons — one medical, and one political.
Let’s tackle the political first since this could extremely hinder our ability to address the medical.
The author of this piece from the Angry Left is tickled by the prospect that millions could die, and W will be blamed.
In the event of an actual outbreak, there would no doubt be a rush to point fingers and assign blame. In the high stakes game of Asian bird flu, the Republicans stand to lose.
This type of thinking is obnoxious for the obvious reasons, but it could also be deadly.
Every American should keep a close eye on the politics of this situation and call or write their Representatives or Senators when there any shanigans — on both sides of the aisle.
Now, back to the medical ramifications from The New York Times:
A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within “a few months or even weeks.”
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.
The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures “are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two.”
The plan’s 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.
The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.
It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within six months, more than 10 times the present capacity.
On Friday, President Bush invited the leaders of the nation’s top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.
How does a pandemic occur — human to human transmission of the virus:
Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.
Tom Maguire highlights helpful resources:
• “Pandemics and Pandemic Scares in the 20th Century” (Health and Human Services)
Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 500,000 deaths from the flu occurred in the U.S. alone. Many people died from this very quickly. Some people who felt well in the morning became sick by noon, and were dead by nightfall. Those who did not succumb to the disease within the first few days often died of complications from the flu (such as pneumonia) caused by bacteria.
• “Information About Influenza Pandemics” (Centers for Disease Control)
Four different influenza antiviral medications (amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir, and zanamivir) are approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the treatment and/or prevention of influenza. All four work against influenza A viruses. However, sometimes influenza virus strains can become resistant to one or more of these drugs, and thus the drugs may not always work. For example, the influenza A (H5N1) viruses identified in human patients in Asia in 2004 and 2005 have been resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. Monitoring of avian viruses for resistance to influenza antiviral medications is continuing. . . .
Influenza pandemics are different from many of the threats for which public health and the health-care system are currently planning:
• The pandemic will last much longer than most other emergency events and may include “waves” of influenza activity separated by months (in 20th century pandemics, a second wave of influenza activity occurred 3 to 12 months after the first wave).
• The numbers of health-care workers and first responders available to work can be expected to be reduced; they will be at high risk of illness through exposure in the community and in health-care settings, and some may have to miss work to care for ill family members.
• Resources in many locations could be limited because of how widespread an influenza pandemic would be.
• And, lastly from Foreign Affairs, “Preparing for the Next Pandemic”
Summary: If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
My copy of The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History arrives this week.
More Recent Updates:
Previous Updates:
Avian Flu Update III
Avian Flu Update II
Avian Flu Update
Avian Bird Flu Pandemic